We are days away from finding out the big winners of one of the most unpredictable Academy Awards races in recent memory.
After 2024 failed to deliver any big shocks or betting opportunities, 2025 has been the polar opposite, with the Academy Award odds constantly shifting, presenting plenty of betting opportunities for punters. The event takes place this weekend, so let’s take a final look at the Academy Award odds and try to pick out some value picks.
In this Oscars 2025 odds and betting guide, we look at all the films nominated in major categories. For those interested in betting, I recommend exploring the best betting sites to find competitive odds and valuable insights. Let’s dive into our picks for the nominees!
The frontrunners
Where to start with this year’s frontrunners? While some categories, notably the two Best Supporting awards, are best avoided due to lack of value and clear outcomes, some major races, especially Best Picture, are still very hard to call.
Having fallen behind in the odds following a poor performance at the Golden Globes, Anora has caught a second wind and is now the favourite to take home the prize. This is largely due to its success as the Producer’s Guild Awards. The best odds you can find this now are 4/7 with Ladbrokes.
The Brutalist was the night’s clear frontrunner for a long time, but the wheels have massively fallen off its campaign in the last month. Its victory at The Globes had it strongly positioned as the favourite, but Anora’s success has seen its odds drop rapidly. You can now bet on The Brutalist at 13/2 with Paddy Power. While it does look as though it has lost all momentum, it is worth remembering how much of a favourite it was, and I still think there is some value in this for a small bet.
Elsewhere, the Best Actor race is now wide open, with Timothee Chalamet’s win at the SAG Awards positioning him for an upset over Adrien Brody. Brody is still the favourite at 1/2 with bet365, but Chalamet could offer value at 6/4.
Finally, the Best Director market is going to be one that gets a lot of interest. Sean Baker is the favourite at 8/11 with bet365. In such a tight race, though, Brady Corbet at evens offers excellent value with the same bookie. A Best Picture/Best Director split between Anora and The Brutalist feels like a very feasible option to me.
One of the best things about this awards season is that the bookies have quite consistently got it wrong. Conclave’s success at the BAFTAs and the SAGs is a major example of this, so we should be prepared for all eventualities on the night.
Back Anora to win Best Picture at 4/7 with Ladbrokes
Ones to watch
As I’ve already addressed in this Academy Awards betting guide, all major races are close to call. As such, it does feel like anything could happen on the night.
Outside of the value bets I mentioned in the previous section, Flow in the Best Animated Feature Film market grabs my attention if I am looking for a potential upset on the night. While the award is The Wild Robot’s to lose, Flow’s victory at the SAG Awards and its steady momentum throughout the race suggest it could cause an upset, and at 9/4 with bet365, it could be worth an outside punt.
The Best Actress race is also one worth paying attention to. Demi Moore’s big wins at the SAG Awards and the Golden Globes puts her in pole position. However, Mikey Madison at 15/8 with Paddy Power is well worth a punt. Anora is shaping up to have a great night, and Madison pipping Moore to the prize would be the icing on a very sweet cake.
Finally, in the Best Picture race, Conclave could offer some great value. Its win at the BAFTAs originally felt like BAFTA rewarding a British movie, but its victory at the SAG Awards last weekend suggests otherwise. You can bet on this at 9/4 with bet365, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that come in before the event itself.
Back Conclave to win Best Picture at 9/4 with bet365
What shapes Oscars betting odds?
Film enthusiasts everywhere will tell you that the race to Best Picture starts long before the Academy Award nominations are revealed in January. Oscar betting enthusiasts will start to monitor the potential winners for the next year not long after the current ceremony ends, with the film festival circuit often giving an early indication of how things might shape up.
The Palme d’Or award, which is handed out to the best film at the Cannes Film Festival, has become an early indicator of potential Oscar success in recent years, with four of the last five winners getting a Best Picture nomination and one of them, Parasite, going on to win Best Picture.
A few months later, the Golden Lion award at the Venice Film Festival is another major stop, with films like Poor Things, Joker, and Roma winning the prize and Best Picture winners like The Shape of Water and Nomadland also taking it home.
It is around this time of year, August/September when you can get early odds with some of the bookies, and I recommend monitoring these festivals to get in on some early betting action and value odds.
As the year closes, the major award ceremonies begin, and the picture becomes much clearer. The Golden Globes and the BAFTAs are major precursors for Oscar success, and the odds can narrow considerably during this time-period. This year’s race has been a rollercoaster ride in this respect, with Anora, The Brutalist and Conclave all winning major prizes in the last month to really throw the cat among the pigeons.
The bookies are monitoring all of these situations and analysing previous Oscar races and public perception to determine the odds for the event. If you want to get the best odds for the Oscars, my recommendation is to monitor the film festivals and keep your eyes on the odds early doors.
When the bookies got it wrong
While monitoring the Oscar race early helps bookies shape their odds and can provide you with some value bets, it is worth noting that it is not an exact science, and the bookies have got it wrong several times.
CODA, Moonlight, Spotlight, and Green Book are just a few examples of when the bookies have been wrong in the last decade. This often comes from the Globes, BAFTA and the Academy voting differently.
In CODA’s case, its odds came in rapidly in the final two days leading up to the event, but eagled-eyed punters could have grabbed it as far out as 14/1 less than a month before the event started.
In other cases, such as Moonlight, it quietly built momentum behind a firm favourite, in Moonlight’s case, this was La La Land. This could be well the case this year with a movie like Conclave, which has quietly sat in third place behind Anora and The Brutalist for most of the run.
How to find Oscars betting odds
If you are a sports bettor who doesn’t normally dabble in Oscars betting, you might be wondering where you can find the latest Oscars odds. In my experience, it will depend on which bookmaker you are using. William Hill and SkyBet, for example, have a dedicated film and TV category, whereas Paddy Power and Betfair have a ‘Special Bets’ section. Some bookies will also list it under novelty.
If you can not find this section, I recommend using the search function. While most bookies will list it as the Oscars, some will list it as the Academy Awards, so you should note this.
Following the action
You can keep up to speed with all of the latest Oscars and other entertainment betting by checking back in with us at talkSPORT in the build-up to each event.
If you want to watch the Academy Awards in the UK, you will need to set your alarms and get up early in the morning, with the event being broadcast from the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood on Sunday, March 2nd, local time. This will be 3 am in the morning on Monday, March 3rd, UK time.
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About the author
Liam Hoofe
Liam is an experienced iGaming and sports betting journalist based in Cardiff. He has worked in the sports betting industry since 2017 and has provided content for some of the biggest casino and betting brands in the UK. He has also covered football and other sports for both regional and national newspapers.
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