The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs opens with defending champions the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Houston Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday.
The Chiefs have won the Super Bowl in three of the last five years and also lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the big game after the 2020 season, so it would be a surprise if they were to depart at the last-eight stage this time and the prices for the game reflect that.
Andy Reid’s team wrapped up the first seed in the AFC with an impressive 15-2 record – and one of those defeats came when they put out a second-string side in Week 18 – although there was not as much razzmatazz about their play as there has been in recent seasons and most of their victories saw them finding ways to come out on top in close games rather than stamping their authority on their opponents.
The Texans also looked to have taken a step backward this season despite retaining their AFC South title with a 10-7 record, as that was a weak division and they struggled in most of their contests against playoff-calibre teams.
The Chiefs came out on top 27-19 when the teams met at this venue in Week 16 and the oddsmakers expect a similar margin of victory for the home team this week.
The Texans gave themselves hope of an upset with their convincing 32-12 home win over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round, which was their best performance for some time, but the Chiefs were at home resting and preparing for this contest so should come out firing.
We’ve prepared a three-leg bet builder suggestion for the game that would pay out at 6/1 if successful.
Kansas City Chiefs v Houston Texans tips
- Under 41.5 total points
- Over 0.5 CJ Stroud interceptions
- Over 37.5 DeAndre Hopkins receiving yards
- Bet Builder odds: 6/1
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Impressive defences should be on top
When people think of the Chiefs, their thoughts naturally first turn to quarterback Patrick Mahomes and star tight end Travis Kelce, but much of their success over the last two seasons has been built on their strong defence.
The Chiefs ranked fourth in the league in points allowed per game at just 19.2 and with a defence that strong, asking Mahomes and co to conjure up enough points to win is not too demanding.
Before deciding to keep all of their starters out of harm’s way in the Week 18 loss to the Broncos, the Chiefs had conceded 17, 17, seven, 19 and 10 points in their previous five victories (including the home game against the Texans) and that has meant they don’t need fireworks from their offence to win.
The Texans’ defence starred in their win over the Chargers as they intercepted Justin Herbert four times and sacked him four times for good measure.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans will need another huge performance from that unit against the Chiefs after they sacked Mahomes just once in the first meeting, but their offence had generally been struggling before the Chargers game, with their only points in the 31-2 loss to Baltimore on Christmas Day coming from a safety.
The Chiefs should find a way to get the job done but a low-scoring contest looks the best option to start our bet builder.
Stroud could make mistakes in hostile atmosphere
Texans quarterback CJ Stroud has thrown nine interceptions in his last nine games with at least one pick in six of those games and it’s worth backing at least one of his pass attempts to find its way into the hands of a Chiefs defender.
The Chiefs picked him off twice in their recent meeting, as safety Jaden Hicks and cornerback Trent McDuffie each snagged an interception and safety Justin Reid had another in the following game against the Steelers, so the Chiefs’ defensive backs should be hungry to get their hands on the ball again.
Stroud put in an improved display against the Chargers last week, passing for 282 yards and a touchdown, but he was still intercepted once and could find the going tough in a rowdy atmosphere at Arrowhead.
Hopkins set to shine against former team
The Chiefs’ early-season offensive injury woes have left them with a wealth of talent at the end of the season with players returning from absences to work alongside those who were brought in to replace them.
At running back, Isiah Pacheco is back to supplement the efforts of free-agent signing Kareem Hunt, while at wide receiver, Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown is back from injury and rookie Xavier Worthy is playing a larger role, but veteran DeAndre Hopkins will not have been forgotten by head coach Andy Reid and could play an important role.
Hopkins played six playoff games for the Texans earlier in his career and arrived in Kansas City in a trade from the Tennessee Titans in late October.
Hopkins still has plenty of juice in his game at the age of 32 and averaged 43.7 receiving yards per outing in the regular season, so asking him to record 38 or more in Saturday’s game seems reasonable.
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All odds correct at time of writing
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